Arouca vs Estrela prediction
Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:30, Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Arouca a 54% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 23% for Estrela. Expected goals: Arouca 2.1, Estrela 1.3. Most likely score: 1-1.
FCA54%Draw22%EST23%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home54%✓Fair odds 1.84Double chanceEither team78%✓Fair odds 1.29Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.567%✗Fair odds 1.49Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.587%✗Fair odds 1.15Both teams to scoreYes66%✗Fair odds 1.52Correct score1-110%✗Fair odds 10.36Draw no betHome70%✓Fair odds 1.43Asian handicapAway +1.567%✓Fair odds 1.50Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome59%✓Fair odds 1.70Win to nilHome22%✓Fair odds 4.52
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Both teams score | 66% |
Most likely scores
- 1-19.7%
- 2-19.4%
- 2-07%
- 3-16.7%
- 2-26.4%
Recent form
Arouca
- DSporting CP 2-2 Arouca
- LArouca 1-2 Santa Clara
- DEstoril 0-0 Arouca
- WArouca 2-1 Maritimo
- LFC Porto 2-0 Arouca
Estrela
- LEstrela 0-2 Académico de Viseu
- DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela
- WEstrela 2-1 Braga
- DEstrela 2-2 FC Famalicao
- WC.D. Nacional 2-3 Estrela
Head to head
- WArouca 1-0 Estrela
- LEstrela 3-1 Arouca
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.