FC Porto vs Benfica prediction
Sunday 20 September 2026, 20:30, Estádio do Dragão
Full time: 3-1
Our prediction
The model gives FC Porto a 41% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 30% for Benfica. Expected goals: FC Porto 1.4, Benfica 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
FCP41%Draw29%SLB30%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home41%✓Fair odds 2.44Double chanceEither team71%✓Fair odds 1.40Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.554%✗Fair odds 1.85Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.573%✓Fair odds 1.38Both teams to scoreYes52%✓Fair odds 1.93Correct score1-114%✗Fair odds 7.30Draw no betHome57%✓Fair odds 1.74Asian handicapAway +0.559%✗Fair odds 1.69Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome49%✓Fair odds 2.02Win to nilHome23%✗Fair odds 4.41
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Both teams score | 52% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.7%
- 1-010.1%
- 0-09.1%
- 2-18.7%
- 0-18.3%
Recent form
FC Porto
- WCasa Pia 1-4 FC Porto
- LFC Porto 0-2 Manchester City
- WFC Porto 2-1 Moreirense
- WAcadémico de Viseu 0-3 FC Porto
- WFC Porto 2-0 Arouca
Benfica
- WAC Milan 0-2 Benfica
- WBenfica 3-1 Gil Vicente
- WMoreirense 0-4 Benfica
- WMaritimo 0-3 Benfica
- WBenfica 2-1 Estoril
Head to head
- DBenfica 2-2 FC Porto
- DFC Porto 0-0 Benfica
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.