Sporting CP vs Arouca prediction
Saturday 19 September 2026, 20:30, Estádio José Alvalade
Full time: 2-2
Our prediction
The model gives Sporting CP a 73% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 10% for Arouca. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.6, Arouca 0.9. Most likely score: 2-0.
SCP73%Draw17%FCA10%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home73%✗Fair odds 1.36Double chanceHome or draw90%✓Fair odds 1.11Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.568%✓Fair odds 1.46Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.587%✓Fair odds 1.15Both teams to scoreYes56%✓Fair odds 1.79Correct score2-010%✗Fair odds 9.92Draw no betHome88%Fair odds 1.14Asian handicapHome -0.573%✗Fair odds 1.36Odd/Even goalsEven51%✓Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome72%✓Fair odds 1.40Win to nilHome37%✗Fair odds 2.72
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Both teams score | 56% |
Most likely scores
- 2-010.1%
- 2-19.2%
- 3-08.8%
- 3-18%
- 1-17.6%
Recent form
Sporting CP
- DFC Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP
- WSporting CP 3-1 Galatasaray
- WSporting CP 2-0 C.D. Nacional
- WRio Ave 0-4 Sporting CP
- WSporting CP 3-1 Alverca
Arouca
- LArouca 1-2 Santa Clara
- DEstoril 0-0 Arouca
- WArouca 2-1 Maritimo
- LFC Porto 2-0 Arouca
- WArouca 4-0 Moreirense
Head to head
- WArouca 1-2 Sporting CP
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.