Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense prediction
Saturday 19 September 2026, 20:00, Arena MRV
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives Atlético-MG a 65% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 14% for Chapecoense. Expected goals: Atlético-MG 2.2, Chapecoense 0.9. Most likely score: 2-0.
CAM65%Draw21%CHA14%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home65%✗Fair odds 1.54Double chanceHome or draw86%✓Fair odds 1.17Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.559%✗Fair odds 1.69Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.582%✓Fair odds 1.22Both teams to scoreYes54%✓Fair odds 1.86Correct score2-011%✗Fair odds 9.31Draw no betHome82%Fair odds 1.22Asian handicapHome -0.565%✗Fair odds 1.54Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome66%✗Fair odds 1.51Win to nilHome35%✗Fair odds 2.90
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
Most likely scores
- 2-010.7%
- 1-19.9%
- 2-19.9%
- 1-09.2%
- 3-07.7%
Recent form
Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 3-1 Fluminense
- LSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 2-1 Vitória
- DInternacional 0-0 Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 3-0 Grêmio
Chapecoense
- LChapecoense 1-2 Internacional
- WCorinthians 1-2 Chapecoense
- LGrêmio 3-1 Chapecoense
- WChapecoense 1-0 São Paulo
- DChapecoense 3-3 Bahia
Head to head
- WChapecoense 0-4 Atlético-MG
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.