Atlético-MG vs Santos prediction
Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:00, Arena MRV
Full time: 2-1
Our prediction
The model gives Atlético-MG a 43% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 29% for Santos. Expected goals: Atlético-MG 1.5, Santos 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
CAM43%Draw28%SAN29%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home43%✓Fair odds 2.31Double chanceEither team72%✓Fair odds 1.38Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.550%✗Fair odds 1.99Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.575%✓Fair odds 1.33Both teams to scoreYes54%✓Fair odds 1.84Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.59Draw no betHome60%✓Fair odds 1.67Asian handicapAway +0.557%✗Fair odds 1.76Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome51%✗Fair odds 1.95Win to nilHome23%✗Fair odds 4.37
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.2%
- 1-09.4%
- 2-19.1%
- 0-08%
- 2-07.7%
Recent form
Atlético-MG
- DAthletico-PR 2-2 Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 1-0 Red Bull Bragantino
- DAtlético-MG 1-1 Chapecoense
- WAtlético-MG 3-1 Fluminense
- LSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético-MG
Santos
- DSantos 2-2 Flamengo
- WSão Paulo 1-2 Santos
- WRemo 1-2 Santos
- WSantos 2-1 Cruzeiro
- WInternacional 2-3 Santos
Head to head
- LSantos 1-0 Atlético-MG
- DAtlético-MG 1-1 Santos
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.