Atlético-MG vs Coritiba prediction
Saturday 17 October 2026, 22:30, Arena MRV
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Atlético-MG a 59% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 18% for Coritiba. Expected goals: Atlético-MG 2.0, Coritiba 1.0. Most likely score: 1-1.
CAM59%Draw23%CFC18%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home59%✓Fair odds 1.70Double chanceHome or draw82%✓Fair odds 1.22Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.557%✗Fair odds 1.76Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.580%✗Fair odds 1.24Both teams to scoreYes55%✗Fair odds 1.81Correct score1-111%✗Fair odds 9.14Draw no betHome77%✓Fair odds 1.30Asian handicapHome -0.559%✓Fair odds 1.70Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome62%✓Fair odds 1.61Win to nilHome31%✓Fair odds 3.25
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Both teams score | 55% |
Most likely scores
- 1-110.9%
- 2-110%
- 2-09.9%
- 1-09.3%
- 3-16.5%
Recent form
Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 2-1 Santos
- DAthletico-PR 2-2 Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 1-0 Red Bull Bragantino
- DAtlético-MG 1-1 Chapecoense
- WAtlético-MG 3-1 Fluminense
Coritiba
- DCoritiba 1-1 Botafogo
- LFluminense 4-0 Coritiba
- LVasco da Gama 5-0 Coritiba
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico-PR
- LCoritiba 1-2 Mirassol
Head to head
- LCoritiba 2-0 Atlético-MG
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.