Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction
Friday 9 October 2026, 01:30, Allianz Parque
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 16% for Bahia. Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.8, Bahia 0.8. Most likely score: 1-0.
PAL60%Draw24%BAH16%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home60%✓Fair odds 1.67Double chanceHome or draw84%✓Fair odds 1.19Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.550%✓Fair odds 1.98Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.575%✗Fair odds 1.33Both teams to scoreNo52%✓Fair odds 1.94Correct score1-012%✓Fair odds 8.39Draw no betHome79%✓Fair odds 1.27Asian handicapHome -0.560%✓Fair odds 1.67Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome63%✓Fair odds 1.58Win to nilHome35%✓Fair odds 2.82
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Both teams score | 48% |
Most likely scores
- 1-011.9%
- 2-011.6%
- 1-111.5%
- 2-19.7%
- 0-07.9%
Recent form
Palmeiras
- DGrêmio 0-0 Palmeiras
- WPalmeiras 2-0 São Paulo
- DBotafogo 0-0 Palmeiras
- DMirassol 1-1 Palmeiras
- WPalmeiras 4-1 Vasco da Gama
Bahia
- LAthletico-PR 2-1 Bahia
- WBahia 2-1 Remo
- WRed Bull Bragantino 2-3 Bahia
- WBahia 3-2 Internacional
- WVitória 0-2 Bahia
Head to head
- WBahia 1-2 Palmeiras
- LBahia 1-0 Palmeiras
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.