São Paulo vs Atlético-MG prediction
Saturday 5 September 2026, 22:30, Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
Full time: 2-0
Our prediction
The model gives São Paulo a 34% chance of winning, 30% for a draw and 36% for Atlético-MG. Expected goals: São Paulo 1.1, Atlético-MG 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
SAO34%Draw30%CAM36%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away36%✗Fair odds 2.82Double chanceEither team70%✓Fair odds 1.44Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.559%✓Fair odds 1.69Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.568%✓Fair odds 1.46Both teams to scoreNo52%✓Fair odds 1.93Correct score1-114%✗Fair odds 7.00Draw no betAway51%✗Fair odds 1.96Asian handicapHome +0.564%✓Fair odds 1.55Odd/Even goalsEven53%✓Fair odds 1.90First team to scoreAway45%✗Fair odds 2.22Win to nilAway21%✗Fair odds 4.79
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Both teams score | 48% |
Most likely scores
- 1-114.3%
- 0-010.9%
- 0-110.5%
- 1-010.2%
- 1-27.8%
Recent form
São Paulo
- WSão Paulo 2-1 Red Bull Bragantino
- LChapecoense 1-0 São Paulo
- DSão Paulo 1-1 Coritiba
- LGrêmio 2-1 São Paulo
- DFlamengo 1-1 São Paulo
Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 2-1 Vitória
- DInternacional 0-0 Atlético-MG
- WAtlético-MG 3-0 Grêmio
- DRemo 2-2 Atlético-MG
- WPalmeiras 1-2 Atlético-MG
Head to head
- LAtlético-MG 1-0 São Paulo
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.